Fears grow of possible miscalculation in contested South China Sea

Experts point out Australia often sails through the South China Sea without back-up, raising concerns for what may occur if an incident arises.
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Concerns are growing that a serious incident could soon occur between the Australian Defence Force and the Chinese military as strategic tensions grow in the Indo-Pacific, as Australia’s Defence Minister warns the world is witnessing the biggest military build-up since World War II.

The ABC has revealed HMAS Parramatta was recently closely tracked and challenged by the Chinese military while transiting through the contested waters of the South China Sea and East China Sea.

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As details emerged of Australia’s latest interaction with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), a US warship conducted a freedom-of-navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea on Wednesday by sailing within the 12-nautical-mile boundary imposed by Beijing on the Paracel Islands.

Australia is yet to conduct a US-style FONOP to challenge Chinese claimed territory and features in the South China Sea, but military observers believe the tempo of ADF activity in the region is high.

In May, a Chinese jet fighter intercepted an Australian surveillance aircraft in the South China Sea, first firing flares and then cutting in front of the P-8 Poseidon and releasing a bag of chaff.

Professor Don Rothwell — an international law expert at the Australian National University — warns the prospect of a miscalculation in the South China Sea involving Australia and China is growing.

“I think it’s becoming increasingly difficult because it is clear that there is a pattern associated with Australia’s activities now [that is] very much aligned with the way in which the United States conducts similar activities,” Professor Rothwell told the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.

“It needs to be accepted that Australia is often sailing through those waters on their own without a lot of back-up, in the way that the US navy would often have.”

“Australia, to a degree, is isolated and, yes, the risk of miscalculation is one that is very live.”

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